Mobile

Posted on January 30, 2011 by Alan Toman

Clearly the greatest interest and the most activity are in all things mobile; it crosses all sectors. Here are just a few facts about mobile today:

  • Amazon sold $1 billion worth of product through mobile in the last 12 months.
  • Mobile ticketing is predicted to more than double by 2012 (from 2010 figures) to exceed $100 billion (based on gross transaction value). Mobile devices are being used for ticket purchases for all kinds of travel, entertainment and sports. Mobile ticketing is one of the main factors driving the growth of mobile commerce.
  • Mobile social games developer Zinga reportedly received $100 million+ in strategic investment funds from Google: http://blog.mobilegamesblog.com/?p=5148
  • Mobile fundraising is estimated to have raised $35 million for Haiti, and according to the Mobile Giving Foundation there are currently over 100 such campaigns running: www.mobilegiving.org/
  • Even major direct response marketers are in the game. HSN and Guthy-Renker (Japan) are moving into mobile.

But to keep everything in perspective, as hot as Android and the iPhone are now, U.S. Smartphone penetration (versus more ‘basic’ feature phones) is projected to hit 50% by the end of 2011, up from 29% in 2009. It’s moving fast, but we still have a long way to go. Conversely, the rest of the world will reach only 8% by 2011, nearly doubling to 15% by 2014. The world is not flat yet. But there is an enormous amount of global potential for ‘basic’ mobile application development.

More about Android: it has been created as an open source platform (it’s basically a Linux system for mobile). This design is consistent with Google’s open philosophy that “democracy on the web works.” Andy Rubin, founder and CEO of Android, actually said that another company could take Android and develop it far bigger than Google will. Is that a challenge?

There is a development in mobile payments that is putting the fear of God into banks, credit cards companies, First Data, and the carriers:

The NFC chip (Near Field Communication) is a short-range high frequency wireless communication technology enabling the exchange of data between devices over about a 10-centimeter (around 4 inches) distance. Apple didn’t get it together for iPhone V4 but is predicted to for V5. Just think—you’ll be able to put money in your iTunes account and buy stuff with the wave of your hand.

Mobile Payments is an already fast-evolving market globally. With over 3 billion mobile phones in use worldwide, soon every one of them will be transformed into a handheld bank, or will offer some form of payment function. Some companies offering mobile pay options are:

One of the most interesting mobile payment applications out there has appeared in Kenya and in other countries with high cash and low credit transactions, or where there is political or banking instability. M-PESA enables customers to complete simple financial transactions like paying bills, salaries, etc. by mobile phone. http://www.safaricom.co.ke/index.php?id=745

So it is no surprise that Experian and Bank of America are working on a mobile payments solution. It is reported that U.S. carriers have tried to get a consortium together on micro-billing standards, but one major carrier has pulled out because the group “couldn’t agree on anything.” Remember that it took years for them to agree on common short codes and inter-carrier operability—you’d think they’d have learned that if they continue to dither, other third party companies will outmaneuver them yet again.

What if your iPhone took plastic? Imagine a swipe-and-go system for your business to use a phone as a mobile credit card processor for ringing up payments wherever you roam. Three companies are firing at the same target: the un-tethered workforce.

Here’s a huge undiscovered fact: today in Japan mobile searches exceed PC searches. And according to Gartner Research, by 2013 the number of browser-equipped phones globally will exceed “old fashioned” PCs (1.83 billion and 1.78 billion respectively).

With all this activity it is surprising that today only 12% of retail establishments and 20% of corporations have a mobile presence. Hello! Is this an opportunity or what?

Localization, GPS & Geo-location are fast-moving segments in the mobile area, particularly in the social networking realm. But more on this later.

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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Social Media

Posted on January 24, 2011 by Alan Toman

It should be no surprise that Social—Social Networks, Social Marketing and Social Media—is on everyone’s mind. But is Social a fad or a revolution?

According to two well-connected web 2.0 pros:

“Social media confuses the crap out of me. There’s so much noise.”

“Social networks have limited value if they are not doing something that has real social relevance.”

If you really want to know where Social is today and don’t read any further, just spend 4-1/2 minutes to check out:

http://www.youtube.com/user/Socialnomics09,

A video based on the book Socialnomics by Erik Qualman. Posted May 5, 2010

This video notwithstanding, Social is a great, vast landscape of ideas, applications and services. Since there are 1 billion postings daily on these networks, there is obviously something really big here.

Many new companies are seeking proof of concept, some have solutions looking for a problem, but most are searching for a viable business case to monetize their service. And since the current Silicon Valley mantra is “build it and sell it to Google,” almost anything goes.

Summarizing Social Media is like nailing Jello to a tree, but here goes:

The first rule that all brands and marketers need to know (and that most seem to ignore) is that Social is all about relationships; it is more than being clever or funny or intrusive. It’s SIMPLE: do only one thing—connect with the customer. You cannot sell out of the gate; you must first earn the customer’s trust and respect.

The biggest challenge for companies running social networks is to maintain relevance. To a growing number of people, “Facebook is dead. Its growth is coming from older demos. The last place kids want to hang out is with their parents or grandparents—that’s the kiss of death. When Facebook becomes your grandmother’s social network, it’s time to move on.”

Consider MySpace. Bought by NewsCorp for $580 million in 2005, it reached 100 million users in 2006 and even until early 2008 was the top social network. Today, to many of us it’s at best ancient history and at worst a joke. But not so fast … according to Alexa.com, MySpace has a higher proportion of young, educated women under 35, with higher incomes than those on Facebook. It has been expanding its musical and entertainment focus; there’s no smart, new band out there without a MySpace presence. While most of us deem MySpace a footnote in Internet history, consider that it ranks 29th in global web traffic, just behind LinkedIn 28th and ahead of Craigslist 30th. With 125 million, it’s far from dead. On the other hand there’s Bebo, the #3 social network purchased by AOL for $850 million in 2008 with 40 million users. AOL recently sold it for less than $10 million with 4.9 million users. How do you spell r-e-l-e-v-a-n-t?

It appears that we may be at the dawn of web 3.0. If web 2.0 grew the social concept of branded communities and affiliates of companies, web 3.0 will become “open-source,” drilling down to the individual who wants open networks. History shows that consumers want open networks, choice, convenience, control, and plug & play. Web 3.0 will see companies aligning with individuals—and individual networks—rather than the other way around, as in web 2.0.

Some other comments on Social:

  • “Will consumers continue to play by Facebook’s rules, and live in Facebook’s branded world? But if Facebook got out of its own way and offered tools in an open environment to build one’s own social network … that’s a different story.”
  • “There is so much data out there and so few ways to consume or use it effectively—it’s amazing the info you can get, and that large companies are trying to control the platform.”
  • How about a social network for your 6-year-old? Don’t laugh (or cry); Pre-teen social networks are becoming common. Of course, “set-up and access is controlled by parents for security & privacy.” Yah, right: http://togetherville.com/ or http://www.scuttlepad.com/
  • Facebook earned a poor 64 in the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) E-Business Report score in 2010, according to analysis by ForeSee Results. The aggregate social media ASCI score in 2010 was 70, placing Facebook well below other leading social media websites. http://tinyurl.com/2cxbxb6

That being said, everyone still wants a Facebook icon and they are #2 in web traffic, but with all the changes that Facebook has been making, their API break a lot; maybe that’s another nail in their coffin.

This situation has given rise to 3rd party apps that give sites multiple options as to which social networks to share.

Some optimization and service tools for socializing websites:

Since social widget links can add 8-15 clicks to a site from a single visitor’s sharing, it is a smart idea to have multiple links. Most publishers have 2 or 3; some have as many as 14. (See any article from http://www.gpsbusinessnews.com.)  One business service site increased traffic by 30% just from a Twitter link.

A brilliant concept for Social is crowd-sourcing: using the public “crowd” as a talent pool for tasks, ideas and insight. Some interesting recent crowd-sourcing examples are:

  • Tools to help communities help themselves: http://www.seeclickfix.com/citizens
  • See what your neighbors are up to: http://www.patch.com/
  • Track what’s new in your neighborhood: http://www.everyblock.com/
  • From date nights to urban adventures: http://www.rundown.com/landing.php?loc=1
  • Independent fundraising for film: http://www.kickstarter.com/
  • But the biggest example by far is “Life In A Day”, a global contest to create a user-generated documentary—shot in a single day (July 24)—by YOU. http://www.youtube.com/lifeinaday. The prize? The most “compelling and distinctive” footage will be edited into an experimental documentary film to be debuted at the 2011 Sundance Film Festival. You may even be selected as one of 20 contributors to attend the film’s premiere at the festival. Aiming for the widest possible coverage, producer Ridley Scott and director Kevin Macdonald, who will edit & produce the film, sent 700 cameras to rural areas in 40 countries. 70% of video submissions came from outside the United States.

Other social applications and services you might want to know about are below. Whether or not they can develop sustainable revenues is another question, but they are interesting:

  • Real life Monopoly comes to location-based services and mobile social gaming. Foursquare’s version of the classic board game is played with 10 friends and 20 venues you regularly visit. You get a bankroll of virtual currency and if none of your friends has checked in, you can ‘buy’ it. When other friends check in they have to pay you ‘rent.’ You get the rest. http://foursquare.com: There were 1.1 million users as of May 2010. (As yet there are no real ‘get out of jail free’ cards.)
  • Log on if you dare: Chat Roulette http://www.chatroulette.com/ pairs random strangers from around the world for webcam-based conversations.
  • A sporting/lifestyle television network reportedly acquired a fishing social community site that has every lake captured, tells you what lures are working, what fish are biting and where—all from guys fishing now. Bottom line: human behavior amplified by technology. It used to be that you asked at the local bait shop what’s biting where; now you can get it from the source: a fisherman on the lake now, in real time.
  • Flipboard, a new iPad application http://www.flipboard.com/ reportedly had 3.6 million downloads on launch day. The app links your social network contacts, takes what they are sharing and displays it all in a magazine-type format, including fashion, etc. that changes in real-time. It’s the 1st social magazine. Harry Potter would be proud.
  • Bump http://bu.mp/ is a quick and easy way to connect two phones by simply bumping them together. Exchange your phone number, photos, compare friends or even send money through PayPal with just a bump.

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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Location Based Services

Posted on December 14, 2010 by Alan Toman

Location based service apps need companies with local and inventory data. Without that local data, LBS apps don’t have the power they require. (Imagine doing a mobile product search on a pair of shoes your friend is wearing. You’re able to find a local store that carries them in the size and color you want, in stock, and on sale for the next hour.) We will also see further development of geographic(al) information systems (GIS) to capture, store, analyze, manage, and present data that are linked to any location.

The real growth in LBS—and important for consumer acceptance—are apps for deals or finding buddies. Additionally, virtual reality apps that layer reality images of existing places and enable virtual mapping will be great conveniences for users.

Groupon is the current leader in the online LBS space. After raising $135 million in April, it has an eye popping $1.3 billion valuation: http://www.groupon.com/los-angeles/. The other players to keep an eye on are Yelp: http://www.yelp.com/la\ and Loopt: http://www.loopt.com/

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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Asia/China

Posted on December 7, 2010 by Alan Toman

Not that you need to be reminded, but China has replaced the U.S. as the world’s second largest luxury goods consumer, behind Japan, according to recent statistics from the World Luxury Association (WLA) http://www.luxuo.com/luxury-trends/china-second-largest-luxury-goods-consumer.html.

“The biggest lesson to learn about China is that they don’t want to be the United States.” They want to know about us and how we do things, but they don’t want to be like the West, so the idea that what is right for the U.S. is right for the world doesn’t translate in this case.

For those thinking about monetizing China: China Cache is reportedly the only company with a license to the delivery of country-wide content: http://www.chinacache.com/.

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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Privacy/Security

Posted on November 30, 2010 by Alan Toman

There seems to be a rather cynical view of privacy attitudes today. As a friend commented, “Facebook’s CEO doesn’t care about privacy. At 26 what does he have that’s worth protecting?” But he was not alone; there were observations from others about privacy:

  • “Millennials are less interested in money than in having friends. If they get celebrity the money will follow.”
  • “People under 30 don’t care about privacy. They know that what you post is everywhere and that everyone self-edits. People over 30 think in terms of celebrity and want to protect their privacy.”
  • “Here’s fame’s dirty little secret: it’s not that good. And it might come full circle. Aside from technology, people are largely the same as they were 400 years ago, with similar problems, concerns and issues when it comes to privacy.”

All that being said, “There is an increased realization that privacy is a more complex and treasured element, and that we want more discretion over what to share.”

Within the next six months we should see personal digital/privacy lockers: applications or devices that will offer opt-in methods giving the user, not the network, control. Essentially these tools will give individuals the ability to segregate personal information on what info and data to share or not.

A leader in mobile security is NetQin, with operations in 20 countries and with reportedly 70% of the Chinese market: http://www.netqin.com/en/

One of the problems inherent in privacy policy is the government’s inability to keep up with changes to security regulations and requirements. The Supreme Court currently considers cell phones (yes, smart phones, too) in the same category as pagers, but Google, Apple & Amazon have data on web and mobile customers that is legal to use.  Apple’s iAds, for example, monitors iTunes usage to serve targeted ads, but at the same time the FCC says that carriers can’t use private user data. Come on Chairman Genachowski; get us into the 21st Century.

And finally, here’s a big next new thing—a Crap Filter that auto-answers crap emails:

“Thanks for sending me this. I want you to know you are very important to me and
I can’t wait to respond. I do love you and will get in touch as soon as I can.”
All emails are answered in the order received; presently you are number 26,289

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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Education

Posted on November 23, 2010 by Alan Toman

There is the wide impression that the iPad will revolutionize education and the time-value of information. Imagine a mashup of textbook data from multi sources—current, relevant, dynamic sources—based on the best of the best rather than on one textbook publisher or author. It is the network-of-networks concept to mash up ideas and information.

Technology is also changing all forms of instruction, educational publishing, testing and training. It’s interesting to note that new companies are developing now more as educational software and technology companies and not as education companies, which is a telling change of focus.

If we are going to improve U.S. education, its funding has to change. It is upside down: if schools get grants to improve their scores and their scores subsequently improve, then schools get less money, because they are considered less needy. Smart companies in the space are providing education about education to help administrators learn how to get and use funds. “If you teach a man to fish…”

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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Renewable Energy/Green Technology

Posted on November 16, 2010 by Alan Toman

Government intervention is vital to the development of renewable and green technology: currently there are government subsidies of only $2 billion for renewable energy vs. $90 billion for coal. What’s wrong with this picture?

Earlier this year Congress introduced the PACE bill (property assessment for clean energy), which would help homeowners finance green improvements to their properties by adding the cost and installation of such improvements to one’s property tax bill, payable over 20 yrs. A brilliant way to help individuals finance green upgrades. It is being blocked by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “Come on, Washington, get with it.”

Energy costs are growing at 6-1/2% per year, which will make renewable energy a viable alternative to carbon-based energy very soon. And with more devices now becoming available to manage our environmental footprint we are at a tipping point.

Consider this: with the cost of solar panels dropping below $3 per watt (some companies claim costs as low as $1 per watt), and typical homes needing 5,000-10,000 watts generating capacity per day, an installation could cost from $15-$25,000, after state and federal rebates. If you are paying $100-$150 per month for power off the grid, and you could generate sufficient power (living in sunnier climates) you could pay for the system in 12 to 15 years or less if you sold your surplus capacity back to the utility. Here is a convenient calculator to find out: http://us.sunpowercorp.com/estimator/

E-recycling is becoming even bigger, as evidenced by recycling components of old cell phones and reusing them to make machines smarter and more efficient. One of the most inventive new companies out there is Eco/ATM: http://www.ecoatm.com/. It’s an ATM-type service allowing you to turn in your old mobile phone and get cash back. Then the old mobile components are harvested for other uses.

Even Hollywood is getting into the act and turning to green energy.  With the explosion of digital content, the demand for power to drive file-based servers—for content creation, storage, serving and streaming—is enormous. The Long Beach Studios project, which will be the largest independent production facility in the world when

completed, is also planning to be the most energy efficient: http://www.longbeachstudiosllc.com/

The Discovery Channel has launched a new series, “Powering the Future,” which reminds us that “Nature doesn’t waste a calorie of energy.” http://science.discovery.com/tv/powering-the-future/

Sustainable transportation programs are growing. The non-profit Center for Neighborhood Technology program I-GO: http://www.cnt.org/tcd/i-go-car-sharing is the first car-sharing organization in Chicago, with 100% low-emission vehicles in its fleet. Like Zip Car: http://www.zipcar.com/, only smarter.

Here’s an interesting idea: to tap a growing source of computing power that is not being used. The Snapdragon processor in the Droid X provides 1GHz mobile processing with low power consumption. Imagine tapping into mobile devices at night, when they would otherwise be shut down, to use their power for another purpose, like, say, a mobile cloud-computing platform? Stranger things have happened.

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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Trends & Ideas

Posted on October 21, 2010 by Alan Toman

  • Just-In-Time Resourcing: The virtual world is the new way of the world—get what you need, when you need it. Now.
  • On-Shoring: Youngstown, Ohio, in the middle of the Rust Belt, is transforming itself into a technology hub, turning old factories into technology centers. Because the location of a software company isn’t relevant. With its lower cost of living and burgeoning cultural and social life, Youngstown’s transformation is part of a movement referred to as ‘Rust Belt Chic.’
  • M2M: Machine 2 Machine. Investment is coming more to products than service. M2M is a wireless technology enabling machines to talk to one another. Think meter reading, home automation, digital billboards, in store signage/real-time pricing changes or electronic ‘band-aids’ that transmit your vitals signs to your doctor.  With the massive capacity that wireless operators are putting in place, we will see more and more real-time, always on, connected devices.
  • There’s a rumor that Pittsburgh has been selected by Google for a test project that will deliver the fastest fiber optic network ever, with 1-gigabit speed. This is more than 100 times faster than what most of us have today: http://tiny.cc/tpg04 Considering the fact that the U.S. currently ranks 27th in the world for Internet speed, which is slower than Kyrgyzstan, Slovakia or Luxembourg, it’s about time we came into the 21st century. http://www.netindex.com/download/allcountries/

Speaking of Google, you can’t mention trends and ideas without including Google’s philosophy, written a few years ago, but as relevant today as ever:

The Google Philosophy:

1. Focus on the user and all else will follow.

2. It’s best to do one thing really, really well.

3. Fast is better than slow.

4. Democracy on the web works.

5. You don’t need to be at your desk to need an answer.

6. You can make money without doing evil.

7. There’s always more information out there.

8. The need for information crosses all borders.

9. You can be serious without a suit.

10. Great just isn’t good enough

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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In Their Own Words

Posted on October 14, 2010 by Alan Toman

Quotes from conversations

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
—Alan Kay, early computer scientist and conceiver of the laptop

“(I appreciate) the magnificence of arm’s length communication.”
—in reference to social networks like Facebook

“Millennials are less interested in money than in having friends. If they get celebrity the money will follow.”

“People under 30 don’t care about privacy. They know that what you post is everywhere and that everyone self-edits. People over 30 think in terms of celebrity and want to protect their privacy.”

“Who wants to read? Go to YouTube.”  (The view of a 12-year-old on the value of Google)

“The new currency for the young is that the money will come if their social consciousness is high enough.”

“Facebook is dead. Its growth is coming from older demos. The last place kids want to hang out is with their parents or grandparents—that’s the kiss of death. When Facebook becomes your grandmother’s social network, it’s time to move on.”

“The biggest lesson to learn about China is that they don’t want to be the United States, they want to know about us, learn about us but don’t want to be us.”

“Most mobile apps are still only novelty conversation starters—Fatbooth, Moron Test, or Talking Larry the Bird, etc.—so now what?”

“We still need to discover how crowd-sourced material can have a truly efficacious use.”

“The VC space is vibrant again. Interesting companies are coming back out into the open.”

“While most consumers in the general market dismiss direct marketing materials as junk mail, Latinos—particularly recent immigrants—welcome them as a means of becoming a more informed consumer.”

“SMS is still ubiquitous. Text is as sexy as it’s ever been.”

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Links/Books/Blogs

Posted on October 1, 2010 by Alan Toman

My quest was to gain perspective on what is going on in business and technology today and what is of particular interest to my colleagues and friends. Thanks to their thoughtful and generous participation, I was able to do that. They have given me countless insights into our world—a world that now seems to change daily.

I think this is a compelling snapshot of ”the way it was” in mid-2010 AD, and I hope you will find something useful in it. It is, after all, the WOOF Factor: the Wisdom Of Observant Friends.

Throughout my conversations, various books and links were mentioned that I think are worth checking out:

TECH News sources:

© Copyright 2010, all rights reserved Alan Toman, direct2at@gmail.com

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